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Global Macro Shifts: The Fed’s Long Unwinding Road

Author: Dr. Michael Hasenstab, Executive Vice President, Portfolio Manager, Chief Investment Officer, Templeton Global Macro

Date: October 2017

Quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has played an influential role in global financial markets over the past decade. In September this year, the Fed confirmed plans to begin unwinding its QE holdings in October. Yet asset prices have generally been unaffected by the news, reflecting a sense of complacency. Templeton Global Macro believes risks and challenges are ahead on the Fed’s road to policy normalization, with three factors that have potential to push bond yields higher than market expectations.

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Topic Papers

DateTitleFormat
December 2017

Investment Strategy and Research Committee Allocation Views

Executive Summary as at 6 December 2017: We favor risk assets due to synchronized global economic growth, modest inflation and supportive liquidity conditions. This generally translates into our preference for equities relative to fixed income. Within fixed income, we prefer short duration exposure and, on a regional basis, emerging-market debt (EMD). From an equity perspective, we prefer non-US exposure, including Japan and emerging markets.
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November 2017

Investment Strategy and Research Committee Allocation Views

Major themes that frame our tactical asset allocation as at 9 November 2017: continued global growth, subtle inflation pressures and business cycle remaining supportive.
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October 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

Major themes that frame our tactical asset allocation as at 10 October 2017: continued global growth, inflationary pressures and business cycle remains positive.
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September 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

Major themes that frame our tactical asset allocation as at 5 September 2017: continued global growth, inflationary pressures and business cycle remains positive.
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August 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

Major themes that frame our tactical asset allocation as at 1 August 2017: continued global growth, inflationary pressures and business cycle remains positive.
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July 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

Major themes that frame our tactical asset allocation as at 5 July 2017: continued global growth, inflationary pressures and business cycle remains positive.
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June 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

Major themes that frame our tactical asset allocation as at June 1, 2017: synchronized global growth, inflationary pressures and the business cycle remains positive.
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May 2017

Global Macro Shifts: Trade and Taxes in a World with Borders

Templeton Global Macro examines the possibility of a value-add tax and its likely impact on prices and exchange rates, longer-term macroeconomic outlook, different domestic sectors and trade flows, and International trade relations.
Summary
May 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

This monthly publication details the FT Solutions Global Investment Committee’s viewpoints on multiple global equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes that drive the asset allocation decisions for FT Solutions-managed portfolios.
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April 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

This monthly publication details the FT Solutions Global Investment Committee’s viewpoints on multiple global equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes that drive the asset allocation decisions for FT Solutions-managed portfolios.
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March 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

This monthly publication details the FT Solutions Global Investment Committee’s viewpoints on multiple global equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes that drive the asset allocation decisions for FT Solutions-managed portfolios.
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February 2017

Global Investment Committee Absolute Allocation Views

This monthly publication details the FT Solutions Global Investment Committee’Uneven global growth and low government bond yields drive our search for defensive investments.
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February 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

This monthly publication details the FT Solutions Global Investment Committee’s viewpoints on multiple global equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes that drive the asset allocation decisions for FT Solutions-managed portfolios.
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January 2016

Global Investment Committee Absolute Return Allocation Views

FT Solutions’ monthly view on key investment themes, which can be expressed in a variety of portfolios that FT Solutions offer to clients. This month: Modest global growth; elevated global equity valuations and low global government bond yields drive our search for defensive investments.
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January 2017

Global Macro Shifts: Latin America – The Rise and Fall of Populism

This issue of Global Macro Shifts believes Latin America’s experience with populism has important lessons and warnings for the developed world at a time when orthodox economic policymaking appears to be at risk of falling out of favor.
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January 2017

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

This monthly publication details the FT Solutions Global Investment Committee’s viewpoints on multiple global equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes that drive the asset allocation decisions for FT Solutions-managed portfolios.
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December 2016

Global Investment Committee Allocation Views

This monthly publication details the FT Solutions Global Investment Committee’s viewpoints on multiple global equity, fixed income and alternative asset classes that drive the asset allocation decisions for FT Solutions-managed portfolios.
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Archive

DateTitleFormat
June 2016

Global Macro Shifts: Emerging Markets: Mapping the Opportunities

This issue of Global Macro Shifts argues that the key to successful investment in emerging markets lies in distinguishing the more resilient markets from the more vulnerable ones.
Summary
February 2016

Global Macro Shifts: Inflation: Dead, or Just Forgotten?

In this edition of Global Macro Shifts, Templeton Global Macro team provides compelling evidence that challenges widespread fears of deflation across the global economy.
Summary
November 2015

Global Macro Shifts: Japan: The Quest for Growth and Inflation

This edition of Global Macro Shifts takes a fresh look at Japan, breaking down the factors that have brought Japan to a crossroads and the obstacles the economy still faces.
Summary
July 2015

Global Macro Shifts: China: Searching for a New Equilibrium

This edition of Global Macro Shifts provides an in-depth look at the challenges and opportunities China faces as it continues to grow.
Summary
May 2015

Medical Malpractice Insurers Analyzing Liabilities First

How medical malpractice insurance providers can improve the efficacy of their investments on both the liability and asset sides of the balance sheet.
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February 2015

Global Macro Shifts: Global Growth: Headwinds or Tailwinds

This edition of Global Macro Shifts provides a counterpoint to recent pessimistic forecasts for global growth.
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